Will "hat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

72 of 2045 launches in the last hour referenced "hat" (50 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.48×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40008423098729323,
      "momentum": -0.7408661572390173,
      "diversity": -0.0666666666666667
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3766658453010715
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hat",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.016891891891891893,
    "share60": 0.03543499511241447,
    "total15": 443,
    "total60": 2045,
    "momentum": 0.4767008387698043,
    "diversity": 0.6944444444444444,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 72,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 50
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 247,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976927777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999038657407407
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3766658453010715
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0030615345065320527,
  "shareRatio": 1.0564347559143472,
  "totalAfter": 42789,
  "shareBefore": 0.0028989032820450444,
  "totalBefore": 49329,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 131,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 143
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity