Will "purple" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
12 of 2045 launches in the last hour referenced "purple" (9 distinct creators, rank #77). Last 15m momentum 1.66×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.13132031060308497,
"momentum": 0.5061661365473658,
"diversity": 0
},
"rawProbability": 0.5046856687183662
},
"features": {
"term": "purple",
"rank60": 77,
"share15": 0.010135135135135136,
"share60": 0.006109481915933529,
"total15": 443,
"total60": 2045,
"momentum": 1.658918918918919,
"diversity": 0.75,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 12,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 9
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 247,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9976927777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999038657407407
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5046856687183662
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.001986491855383393,
"shareRatio": 1.0006880491789083,
"totalAfter": 42789,
"shareBefore": 0.001986660990492408,
"totalBefore": 49329,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 85,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 98
}Predicted 50% that "purple" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.20% (-0%). PARTIAL.
— "purple" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
6899e92c2216b0b41dd7be4401461bd17ce153408aa61a02471036451003862e111fd9a8b3ee1af11d6530565b342d691c5635613096e3b7f7be030de3a52418