Ledger / Prediction #2697 · narrative · 1H

Will "attention" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "attention" (13 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.28×.

Made2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": 0.24601802152206698,
      "diversity": -0.6056603773584907
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.42421003409286945
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "attention",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.04192546583850932,
    "share60": 0.03278186274509804,
    "total15": 321,
    "total60": 1631,
    "momentum": 1.278922621466303,
    "diversity": 0.24528301886792453,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 188,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943816666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943816666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.42421003409286945
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.180

Log loss0.552

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007138221933809215,
  "shareRatio": 0.22819617683067264,
  "totalAfter": 1541,
  "shareBefore": 0.0323960880195599,
  "totalBefore": 1636,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 53
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 42% that "attention" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.24% → 0.71% (-78%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "attention" (1H). diversity contributed -0.61 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash505f32c02da31c717bb8b59498ef378a3066194557933aaad32bb17afbc76b18

Previous hashd9d4b4d37c29b58cd6f59505c8ea71495aec2d909ac0a3340d7bab1e61fafaad