Ledger / Prediction #2698 · narrative · 1H

Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (39 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.81×.

Made2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": -0.21660550042604607,
      "diversity": -0.01698113207547176
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4552553872246048
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepe",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.026397515527950312,
    "share60": 0.03278186274509804,
    "total15": 321,
    "total60": 1631,
    "momentum": 0.8052475764787833,
    "diversity": 0.7358490566037735,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 39
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 188,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943816666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943816666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4552553872246048
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.207

Log loss0.608

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012978585334198572,
  "shareRatio": 0.0496078645284071,
  "totalAfter": 1541,
  "shareBefore": 0.0323960880195599,
  "totalBefore": 1636,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 53
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "pepe" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.24% → 0.13% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pepe" (1H). momentum contributed -0.22 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe6ef44c22259179be6b11f26e6c1134a2a2e50f6902a7c71bda406a2c9cb3939

Previous hash505f32c02da31c717bb8b59498ef378a3066194557933aaad32bb17afbc76b18