Ledger / Prediction #2700 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (8 distinct creators, rank #121). Last 15m momentum 0.30×.

Made2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.210203354076572,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24237492967343688
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 121,
    "share15": 0.0015527950310559005,
    "share60": 0.005208333333333333,
    "total15": 321,
    "total60": 1631,
    "momentum": 0.2981366459627329,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 188,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943816666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943816666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24237492967343688
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.059

Log loss0.278

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012978585334198572,
  "shareRatio": 0.31223773556115053,
  "totalAfter": 1541,
  "shareBefore": 0.004889975550122249,
  "totalBefore": 1636,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 24% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.49% → 0.13% (-73%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). momentum contributed -1.21 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash893c829c30f9f7b9d49ae99b1e7f660f9f712901ae6d4c4567a40c0783e46620

Previous hash99d12e1f3d21bc78db24d566a29af401a2fd50a463a852987184a50c4534ec0f