Ledger / Prediction #2702 · narrative · 6H

Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (39 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.81×.

Made2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": -0.21660550042604607,
      "diversity": -0.01698113207547176
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.44630263909497975
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepe",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.026397515527950312,
    "share60": 0.03278186274509804,
    "total15": 321,
    "total60": 1631,
    "momentum": 0.8052475764787833,
    "diversity": 0.7358490566037735,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 39
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 188,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943816666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990636111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.44630263909497975
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.199

Log loss0.591

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006229836466792747,
  "shareRatio": 0.8975591626293565,
  "totalAfter": 8989,
  "shareBefore": 0.006969334926324173,
  "totalBefore": 15066,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 56,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 105
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "pepe" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.70% → 0.62% (-11%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pepe" (6H). momentum contributed -0.22 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash149de30388937d470fdc08dfe33097a4fc573eb46a5fb045a599c8fa932936ba

Previous hash72bf36398c04d247bcd1ae436bbf721c824650f6a1a55064bf6fda39da897220