Ledger / Prediction #271 · narrative · 6H

Will "ambani" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

54 of 2441 launches in the last hour referenced "ambani" (37 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-09 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35693192011952607,
      "momentum": -3.191561022221738,
      "diversity": -0.07777777777777772
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0879693758900672
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ambani",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.0009174311926605505,
    "share60": 0.02231777231777232,
    "total15": 544,
    "total60": 2441,
    "momentum": 0.041107650871138796,
    "diversity": 0.6851851851851852,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 54,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 383,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99465,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991083333333334
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.0879693758900672
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.092

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009133015852306087,
  "shareRatio": 0.23181185098993318,
  "totalAfter": 15329,
  "shareBefore": 0.0040438203073303435,
  "totalBefore": 13601,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 55
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that "ambani" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.40% → 0.09% (-77%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "ambani" (6H). momentum contributed -3.19 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3dfe3a9426f61e1cfcd3c463fa5996781a2042324c6ca531088f501e512bb635

Previous hash9b8a5fe9851cc4974cd735331c9d1fd74a649c3df8662b24c6a77c8d58521a8d