GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2714 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1451 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (23 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.97×.

Made2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": 0.6797601716074045,
      "diversity": -0.3127659574468085
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5994324003253834
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.06455696202531645,
    "share60": 0.03271349862258953,
    "total15": 394,
    "total60": 1451,
    "momentum": 1.973404397068621,
    "diversity": 0.48936170212765956,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 159,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999083333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999083333333333
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5994324003253834
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 01:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.160
Log loss0.512
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.032839665164198326,
  "shareRatio": 1.0137438190069767,
  "totalAfter": 1553,
  "shareBefore": 0.03236914600550964,
  "totalBefore": 1452,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 51,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.24% → 3.28% (+1%). PARTIAL.

— "uxento" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbd12c5232700bd859c686897aa3e978377a6fd7c2695ab0bab46be7edb284a44
Previous hashfe3bfbbffec99bdd3212cd74d40738c77e80fa082d20d6ac3d56c321cd849f2c