Ledger / Prediction #2715 · narrative · 1H
Will "energy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
31 of 1451 launches in the last hour referenced "energy" (10 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 2.63×.
Made2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27368239380765685,
"momentum": 0.9653391938624065,
"diversity": -0.5129032258064516
},
"rawProbability": 0.6049463891731154
},
"features": {
"term": "energy",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.056962025316455694,
"share60": 0.02169421487603306,
"total15": 394,
"total60": 1451,
"momentum": 2.625678119349005,
"diversity": 0.3225806451612903,
"launches15": 22,
"launches60": 31,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 10
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 159,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999083333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999083333333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6049463891731154
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 01:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.156
Log loss0.503
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.028976175144880875,
"shareRatio": 1.3505648505648506,
"totalAfter": 1553,
"shareBefore": 0.02134986225895317,
"totalBefore": 1452,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 45,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 31
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 60% that "energy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.13% → 2.90% (+36%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "energy" (1H). momentum contributed +0.97 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
176bf6184accf0f8194755cbb6524ae3005a4aa8cd639b3da969b1d27d9b7065Previous hash
bd12c5232700bd859c686897aa3e978377a6fd7c2695ab0bab46be7edb284a44