Ledger / Prediction #2716 · narrative · 1H

Will "ansem" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 1451 launches in the last hour referenced "ansem" (3 distinct creators, rank #74). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.

Made2026-10-13 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 01:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": -1.8336827854455302,
      "diversity": -0.5727272727272728
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06990552664413834
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ansem",
    "rank60": 74,
    "share15": 0.0012658227848101266,
    "share60": 0.007920110192837466,
    "total15": 394,
    "total60": 1451,
    "momentum": 0.15982388552559162,
    "diversity": 0.2727272727272727,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 159,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999083333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999083333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.06990552664413834
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 01:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.005

Log loss0.072

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00128783000643915,
  "shareRatio": 0.20326226847965978,
  "totalAfter": 1553,
  "shareBefore": 0.007575757575757576,
  "totalBefore": 1452,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 11
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that "ansem" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.76% → 0.13% (-83%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "ansem" (1H). momentum contributed -1.83 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4782e57f9e1b11fcfa1a5fb27a580c4c8ef5210678ec42b9f15ea5e271c3d01b

Previous hash176bf6184accf0f8194755cbb6524ae3005a4aa8cd639b3da969b1d27d9b7065