GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2718 · narrative · 6H

Will "fuck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1451 launches in the last hour referenced "fuck" (24 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

Made2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": -2.8413232959079133,
      "diversity": 0.029032258064516103
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11134990230332399
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fuck",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0012658227848101266,
    "share60": 0.02169421487603306,
    "total15": 394,
    "total60": 1451,
    "momentum": 0.05834840265220012,
    "diversity": 0.7741935483870968,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 159,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999083333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999847222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.11134990230332399
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.012
Log loss0.118
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0031792892017713185,
  "shareRatio": 0.6188105635454825,
  "totalAfter": 8807,
  "shareBefore": 0.0051946252943621,
  "totalBefore": 14438,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 75
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that "fuck" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 0.32% (-39%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "fuck" (6H). momentum contributed -2.84 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash950a231224b335bcfd0a06a663b567e0d153645464d8a286e97dac9271ee6448
Previous hash0c9520003f499f4a6951ebdf49e9e8bf2607d10968bc1bdbf2cb1f67995b1387