GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2719 · narrative · 6H

Will "golden" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

29 of 1451 launches in the last hour referenced "golden" (10 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 2.55×.

Made2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.263678687632856,
      "momentum": 0.9378460532822078,
      "diversity": -0.4862068965517241
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.550012819375864
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "golden",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.05189873417721519,
    "share60": 0.0203168044077135,
    "total15": 394,
    "total60": 1451,
    "momentum": 2.554473288993778,
    "diversity": 0.3448275862068966,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 29,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 159,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999083333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999847222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.550012819375864
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.202
Log loss0.598
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.012603610764164868,
  "shareRatio": 3.021198797486883,
  "totalAfter": 8807,
  "shareBefore": 0.00415570023548968,
  "totalBefore": 14438,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 111,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 60
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "golden" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 1.26% (+203%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "golden" (6H). momentum contributed +0.94 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash156fd45316b8c6a5292f00746925118a4af737d6fbf5b25ff025a1194b119006
Previous hash950a231224b335bcfd0a06a663b567e0d153645464d8a286e97dac9271ee6448