Ledger / Prediction #2731 · narrative · 1H

Will "simple" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 1533 launches in the last hour referenced "simple" (8 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.99×.

Made2026-10-13 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": -0.009886675471807624,
      "diversity": -0.7344827586206896
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33699405462917575
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "simple",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.037760416666666664,
    "share60": 0.038135593220338986,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1533,
    "momentum": 0.9901620370370369,
    "diversity": 0.13793103448275862,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 160,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971447222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33699405462917575
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.114

Log loss0.411

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.018776077885952713,
  "shareRatio": 0.5037330054703231,
  "totalAfter": 1438,
  "shareBefore": 0.03763789746917586,
  "totalBefore": 1541,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "simple" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.76% → 1.88% (-50%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "simple" (1H). diversity contributed -0.73 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash72d35ef5f8238f6e05d7f83679385c37ed30964cc6e3b21487463d870029e686

Previous hash70ba658ad1138c03d6e7c0a19fee0928a4849420df8f93365e7e3316b6822e08