Will "niggabutt" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

62 of 1533 launches in the last hour referenced "niggabutt" (16 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.37765447089164866,
      "momentum": -1.833884395528726,
      "diversity": -0.5903225806451613
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15025700456830374
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "niggabutt",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.006510416666666667,
    "share60": 0.04074315514993481,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1533,
    "momentum": 0.15979166666666667,
    "diversity": 0.25806451612903225,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 62,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 160,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995241203703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15025700456830374
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00023226106143305075,
  "shareRatio": 0.06423130515559684,
  "totalAfter": 8611,
  "shareBefore": 0.004483656349435927,
  "totalBefore": 13828,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 62
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity