Will "feelings" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 71% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1533 launches in the last hour referenced "feelings" (5 distinct creators, rank #165). Last 15m momentum 3.99×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 1.3849914293394747,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.7067173546008904
},
"features": {
"term": "feelings",
"rank60": 165,
"share15": 0.014322916666666666,
"share60": 0.003585397653194263,
"total15": 383,
"total60": 1533,
"momentum": 3.994791666666667,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 160,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9971447222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995241203703704
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7067173546008904
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0004645221228661015,
"shareRatio": 1.1116956661545607,
"totalAfter": 8611,
"shareBefore": 0.00043390222736476716,
"totalBefore": 13828,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 4,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 6
}Predicted 71% that "feelings" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.04% → 0.05% (+7%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "feelings" (6H). momentum contributed +1.38 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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