GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2736 · narrative · 6H

Will "feelings" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 71% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1533 launches in the last hour referenced "feelings" (5 distinct creators, rank #165). Last 15m momentum 3.99×.

Made2026-10-13 01:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 1.3849914293394747,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7067173546008904
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "feelings",
    "rank60": 165,
    "share15": 0.014322916666666666,
    "share60": 0.003585397653194263,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1533,
    "momentum": 3.994791666666667,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 160,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995241203703704
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7067173546008904
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 07:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.086
Log loss0.347
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004645221228661015,
  "shareRatio": 1.1116956661545607,
  "totalAfter": 8611,
  "shareBefore": 0.00043390222736476716,
  "totalBefore": 13828,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 71% that "feelings" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.04% → 0.05% (+7%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "feelings" (6H). momentum contributed +1.38 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb604bf97151a1d1cd43c2e4d516ee05fa4796eb1866e3a11309cf7fe0ebd32b5
Previous hash8bba253cabfbc2012c52c45a96ab604d69e9bc570f4b891eed24f1ad1614e85e