Ledger / Prediction #2738 · narrative · 24H

Will "simple" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 1533 launches in the last hour referenced "simple" (8 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.99×.

Made2026-10-13 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": -0.009886675471807624,
      "diversity": -0.7344827586206896
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.38028014256670273
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "simple",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.037760416666666664,
    "share60": 0.038135593220338986,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1533,
    "momentum": 0.9901620370370369,
    "diversity": 0.13793103448275862,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 160,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998810300925925
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.38028014256670273
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.145

Log loss0.479

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004440024975140485,
  "shareRatio": 0.9520552072255948,
  "totalAfter": 43243,
  "shareBefore": 0.0046655664894158875,
  "totalBefore": 49083,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 192,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 229
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "simple" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.47% → 0.44% (-5%). PARTIAL.

— "simple" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7866c9f91cacf3f337e404556655c19d6ed1df1674c474832aec1b2b0511c59e

Previous hash804ec816c7a6a5d410097029c56b21665c8fb9552418a3df15242805ea291bb6