Ledger / Prediction #2745 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

57 of 1545 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (39 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.29×.

Made2026-10-13 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 01:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3650420033100675,
      "momentum": 0.25727121508465733,
      "diversity": -0.07894736842105261
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5605429426220948
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.048104956268221574,
    "share60": 0.03719275549805951,
    "total15": 342,
    "total60": 1545,
    "momentum": 1.2933958676638355,
    "diversity": 0.6842105263157895,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 57,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 39
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938066666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938066666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5605429426220948
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.314

Log loss0.822

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.031163434903047092,
  "shareRatio": 0.8509944335790581,
  "totalAfter": 1444,
  "shareBefore": 0.03670315518351577,
  "totalBefore": 1553,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 45,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 57
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.67% → 3.12% (-15%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.37 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf1f57b954329aacd370f664f959e87e6a7e327fafb9414c694b01dc4acd2db86

Previous hash0da25b438740a736818e54f827485f74b11ade24ab87ddb35eb5a0d59889fccc