GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2748 · narrative · 1H

Will "blockchain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1545 launches in the last hour referenced "blockchain" (6 distinct creators, rank #99). Last 15m momentum 2.10×.

Made2026-10-13 01:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 01:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.7435557299345307,
      "diversity": 0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6508091909078167
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "blockchain",
    "rank60": 99,
    "share15": 0.01020408163265306,
    "share60": 0.0048512289780077615,
    "total15": 342,
    "total60": 1545,
    "momentum": 2.103401360544218,
    "diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938066666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938066666666666
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6508091909078167
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.122
Log loss0.430
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.006232686980609419,
  "shareRatio": 1.3622145328719724,
  "totalAfter": 1444,
  "shareBefore": 0.004507405022537025,
  "totalBefore": 1553,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 65% that "blockchain" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.62% (+38%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "blockchain" (1H). momentum contributed +0.74 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4e2fd6cd86da2897fdf055adfff7fcfbc0478e26f41fc121e5725647f1ef6d66
Previous hashf53a9651b6c8ddfbe876ee7a6dea5054dfad49cbca444429e954addaaedea802