Ledger / Prediction #275 · token · 1H

Will $PADPAD still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-09 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 19:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09583022773245922
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "DJRx3MGzp9P4m8EyyTB8p4ibtnzKY3Ngpj4uAN6Fpump",
    "name": "PadPad",
    "symbol": "PADPAD",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 24,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3279.1725590554283,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 803,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.09583022773245922
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 19:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.101

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T17:38:37.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3064.5852762580894,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3795.1700020947374,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3279.1725590554283,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6558.345118110857
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that $PADPAD would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,065, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $PADPAD (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash99eab4933411916a922afe8788e5fb2701883ff0bc83dc0f390387446ef9178c

Previous hash39f99d6cc881508ae72e1f32f20e4fbe94db8f045dc054726535d8d3f55e5bc9