GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2750 · narrative · 6H

Will "around" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 1545 launches in the last hour referenced "around" (9 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.70×.

Made2026-10-13 01:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 07:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 01:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": -0.3609649954197456,
      "diversity": -0.6749999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.312664806466483
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "around",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.021865889212827987,
    "share60": 0.031371280724450196,
    "total15": 342,
    "total60": 1545,
    "momentum": 0.6970033963511766,
    "diversity": 0.1875,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938066666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989677777777778
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.312664806466483
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 07:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.472
Log loss1.163
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00931899641577061,
  "shareRatio": 1.0605959774266667,
  "totalAfter": 8370,
  "shareBefore": 0.008804554079696394,
  "totalBefore": 13175,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 78,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 116
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "around" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.88% → 0.93% (+6%). PARTIAL.

— "around" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5ef04edd85a15fb2e10425d27cce82dc2f717f9bb77bd0b541ceef60d67bf16e
Previous hash02d0e4c2b5bc20aba4e254bd21abc1f3724ff61c117ad03657cc7750a501ea1f