Ledger / Prediction #2752 · narrative · 6H

Will "tiny" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1545 launches in the last hour referenced "tiny" (4 distinct creators, rank #115). Last 15m momentum 0.30×.

Made2026-10-13 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 01:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.2023544191207827,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22160829143236885
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tiny",
    "rank60": 115,
    "share15": 0.0014577259475218659,
    "share60": 0.0048512289780077615,
    "total15": 342,
    "total60": 1545,
    "momentum": 0.30048590864917396,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938066666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989677777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22160829143236885
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 07:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.606

Log loss1.507

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003106332138590203,
  "shareRatio": 1.174961848501113,
  "totalAfter": 8370,
  "shareBefore": 0.0026565464895635673,
  "totalBefore": 13175,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 26,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 35
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "tiny" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.27% → 0.31% (+17%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "tiny" (6H). momentum contributed -1.20 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 78% and wrong on "tiny". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash375b531643c6b8765204de96fcb9a8afdb9faac902c6f335688c3e0cc56510a2

Previous hash08e1358b71c865630a7c83cf9d0c3c0a965c55eaf082cdfd40d11751cd66fa0d