Ledger / Prediction #2753 · narrative · 24H
Will "around" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 34% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
48 of 1545 launches in the last hour referenced "around" (9 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.70×.
Made2026-10-13 01:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 01:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3392644647710686,
"momentum": -0.3609649954197456,
"diversity": -0.6749999999999999
},
"rawProbability": 0.3433613975023444
},
"features": {
"term": "around",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.021865889212827987,
"share60": 0.031371280724450196,
"total15": 342,
"total60": 1545,
"momentum": 0.6970033963511766,
"diversity": 0.1875,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 48,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 9
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 169,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9938066666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997419444444444
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3433613975023444
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 01:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.118
Log loss0.421
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.005354134453393645,
"shareRatio": 0.9930425516655421,
"totalAfter": 43331,
"shareBefore": 0.005393038078117339,
"totalBefore": 48952,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 232,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 264
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 34% that "around" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.54% → 0.54% (-1%). PARTIAL.
— "around" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
393dec949fb5e13396d2c2ca18771fd952fa0c7bd1b8c4adbd11172aa8b490e6Previous hash
375b531643c6b8765204de96fcb9a8afdb9faac902c6f335688c3e0cc56510a2