GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2755 · narrative · 24H

Will "character" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 1545 launches in the last hour referenced "character" (5 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

Made2026-10-13 01:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 01:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": -0.4179912302891756,
      "diversity": -0.7636363636363636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.325698020266513
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "character",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.018950437317784258,
    "share60": 0.028783958602846053,
    "total15": 342,
    "total60": 1545,
    "momentum": 0.6583680020965048,
    "diversity": 0.11363636363636363,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938066666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997419444444444
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.325698020266513
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 01:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.455
Log loss1.122
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00480025847545637,
  "shareRatio": 1.0981188339953225,
  "totalAfter": 43331,
  "shareBefore": 0.004371629351201177,
  "totalBefore": 48952,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 208,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 214
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "character" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.44% → 0.48% (+10%). PARTIAL.

— "character" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1bb25ed54dabe604e523e57905ce7e4d9ef6bcf035bbe912f60c8e1e99656bc3
Previous hash9646a8fdca8937a04edcc22f5b9222b5667b133c35f2147de1b05a6e02c911d6