Will "character" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 33% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
44 of 1545 launches in the last hour referenced "character" (5 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.32621275822262413,
"momentum": -0.4179912302891756,
"diversity": -0.7636363636363636
},
"rawProbability": 0.325698020266513
},
"features": {
"term": "character",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.018950437317784258,
"share60": 0.028783958602846053,
"total15": 342,
"total60": 1545,
"momentum": 0.6583680020965048,
"diversity": 0.11363636363636363,
"launches15": 6,
"launches60": 44,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 169,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9938066666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997419444444444
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.325698020266513
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00480025847545637,
"shareRatio": 1.0981188339953225,
"totalAfter": 43331,
"shareBefore": 0.004371629351201177,
"totalBefore": 48952,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 208,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 214
}Predicted 33% that "character" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.44% → 0.48% (+10%). PARTIAL.
— "character" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
1bb25ed54dabe604e523e57905ce7e4d9ef6bcf035bbe912f60c8e1e99656bc39646a8fdca8937a04edcc22f5b9222b5667b133c35f2147de1b05a6e02c911d6