Ledger / Prediction #2757 · token · 1H

Will $$AURA still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 4% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 13m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "auracoin". Creator launched 55 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 01:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03752722974296934
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "FX5S17eWEQvPohPfQX79GNLDKL4iGjoWWhAxyNZJpump",
    "name": "AURACOIN",
    "symbol": "$AURA",
    "hotTerms": [
      "auracoin",
      "aura",
      "around",
      "energy",
      "main",
      "character",
      "vibes",
      "golden",
      "simple",
      "mascot",
      "keeps"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 13,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 186,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 6938.968417277831,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 55
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 540,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03752722974296934
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.038

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T01:17:17.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 6938.968417277831,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 7802.499281587776,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 6938.968417277831,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 13877.936834555661
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 4% that $$AURA would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $6,939, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $$AURA (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd0e44c3de830baad7c6055e9f70e15b5d7a30ea243df447b89637dc01047f2de

Previous hash43afa87b6e79c5e9e5feaa380733b05b50d406a4c2c0f6a54f9d9b4332a0300f