Ledger / Prediction #2764 · narrative · 1H

Will "pill" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1435 launches in the last hour referenced "pill" (5 distinct creators, rank #144). Last 15m momentum 0.97×.

Made2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -0.028602796468774325,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.44985549701947103
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pill",
    "rank60": 144,
    "share15": 0.004398826979472141,
    "share60": 0.004526462395543176,
    "total15": 340,
    "total60": 1435,
    "momentum": 0.9718023911572299,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 166,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990886111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990886111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.44985549701947103
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.202

Log loss0.598

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001282051282051282,
  "shareRatio": 0.3545557581432021,
  "totalAfter": 1560,
  "shareBefore": 0.004172461752433936,
  "totalBefore": 1438,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "pill" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.13% (-69%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pill" (1H). momentum contributed -0.03 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash85bf91e329e383bf76fd54ab9ff4f54933bf17426e10c2b247343022856328d5

Previous hashd780ddb817b1b09d48bcf3f9a72ec6cb7c4a9a34c12ba3372cf41562c77baa9e