Ledger / Prediction #2766 · narrative · 6H

Will "grok" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 1435 launches in the last hour referenced "grok" (24 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.75×.

Made2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": -0.2877758113622017,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4099518184913897
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "grok",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.01906158357771261,
    "share60": 0.02541782729805014,
    "total15": 340,
    "total60": 1435,
    "momentum": 0.7499296991122002,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 166,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990886111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998481018518518
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4099518184913897
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.168

Log loss0.528

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003474718427989456,
  "shareRatio": 0.6786767375922091,
  "totalAfter": 8346,
  "shareBefore": 0.005167541380702463,
  "totalBefore": 12385,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 29,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 64
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "grok" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 0.35% (-33%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "grok" (6H). momentum contributed -0.29 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf3e104994892e84717365a824abd5637e103c23ae83c288189c183cc6732e134

Previous hash7b6c8bd61e4a61bf69561ffd45e2901cc85f0d8ac80dd09bea903026c540d191