Ledger / Prediction #2769 · narrative · 24H
Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 40% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
47 of 1435 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (29 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.
Made2026-10-13 02:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 02:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3361064533913937,
"momentum": -0.40809241817367803,
"diversity": -0.15957446808510636
},
"rawProbability": 0.3975269469109228
},
"features": {
"term": "justice",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.021994134897360705,
"share60": 0.03307799442896936,
"total15": 340,
"total60": 1435,
"momentum": 0.664917425528631,
"diversity": 0.6170212765957447,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 47,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 29
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 166,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990886111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999962025462963
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3975269469109228
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 02:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.363
Log loss0.923
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.008516401533411381,
"shareRatio": 1.3831930961359558,
"totalAfter": 43563,
"shareBefore": 0.006155049610934991,
"totalBefore": 48578,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 371,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 299
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 40% that "justice" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.62% → 0.85% (+38%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "justice" (24H). momentum contributed -0.41 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
bd56fbf81674ad93fffdbc517179ea049e824a3d4d4cbe6a77fc223429b035ccPrevious hash
5ec8b770f37977548e92159871a0642333bd6d3016616a2d430ca7186c1724a8