Ledger / Prediction #277 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

100 of 2349 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (57 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.67×.

Made2026-10-09 18:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 19:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 18:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4493598410330986,
      "momentum": -0.40056637528220645,
      "diversity": -0.21600000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3852776322372854
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.02865064695009242,
    "share60": 0.042765957446808514,
    "total15": 540,
    "total60": 2349,
    "momentum": 0.6699405008230566,
    "diversity": 0.57,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 100,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 57
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 398,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921377777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921377777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3852776322372854
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 19:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.148

Log loss0.487

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04145267791636097,
  "shareRatio": 0.9806778356110901,
  "totalAfter": 2726,
  "shareBefore": 0.04224757076468103,
  "totalBefore": 2367,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 113,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 100
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 39% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.22% → 4.15% (-2%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdc732afa18d18113e25c27af539368e6e81c5764659785e7555be4c155147fd4

Previous hash6a851a13d135ab51c107a5fb5941d62b53a4a7f73336191c3828c57215bbdad5