Ledger / Prediction #2779 · narrative · 1H

Will "black" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1442 launches in the last hour referenced "black" (38 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.54×.

Made2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": 0.43028766677109875,
      "diversity": 0.07021276595744674
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6310227405398283
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "black",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.050617283950617285,
    "share60": 0.03291753291753292,
    "total15": 404,
    "total60": 1442,
    "momentum": 1.5376998050682262,
    "diversity": 0.8085106382978723,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963344444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963344444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6310227405398283
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.136

Log loss0.460

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.16404494382022472,
  "shareRatio": 4.996158278908951,
  "totalAfter": 1780,
  "shareBefore": 0.03254847645429363,
  "totalBefore": 1444,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 292,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 63% that "black" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.25% → 16.40% (+404%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "black" (1H). momentum contributed +0.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfa74a5eb6ad483d7cf6bb335735ba6fc670339a3cf02612f873136f3e6d59e79

Previous hash4a8b1c7d3d33ff745f1acccf1bf7a70d211bdcb28ae1eaa33bd74849f923c4d4