Ledger / Prediction #2781 · narrative · 6H

Will "bear" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 1442 launches in the last hour referenced "bear" (40 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.19×.

Made2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": 0.17198020299922215,
      "diversity": 0.0795918367346939
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5289053784538078
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bear",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.040740740740740744,
    "share60": 0.034303534303534305,
    "total15": 404,
    "total60": 1442,
    "momentum": 1.1876543209876544,
    "diversity": 0.8163265306122449,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963344444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993890740740741
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5289053784538078
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.280

Log loss0.753

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008492307692307693,
  "shareRatio": 0.9159047330131819,
  "totalAfter": 8125,
  "shareBefore": 0.009295456519850578,
  "totalBefore": 11511,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 69,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 107
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "bear" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.93% → 0.85% (-9%). PARTIAL.

— "bear" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7c89f3fc35ecd3ece137f4b58ee1b7f817f8d9b0dde2208d90c9d3fbf45b4829

Previous hashda0c3af3a8cae762ce7fc7e261aafca30182fdbff5989fdae26fa2ea9453a55b