Ledger / Prediction #2782 · narrative · 6H

Will "black" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1442 launches in the last hour referenced "black" (38 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.54×.

Made2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": 0.43028766677109875,
      "diversity": 0.07021276595744674
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5709246807038423
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "black",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.050617283950617285,
    "share60": 0.03291753291753292,
    "total15": 404,
    "total60": 1442,
    "momentum": 1.5376998050682262,
    "diversity": 0.8085106382978723,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963344444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993890740740741
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5709246807038423
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.184

Log loss0.561

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05932307692307692,
  "shareRatio": 6.6687957354592005,
  "totalAfter": 8125,
  "shareBefore": 0.008861089392754757,
  "totalBefore": 11511,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 482,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 102
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "black" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.89% → 5.93% (+569%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "black" (6H). momentum contributed +0.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe642458289ef7430ec73559424bc12a93b863105e9563381711970b2fb33be80

Previous hash7c89f3fc35ecd3ece137f4b58ee1b7f817f8d9b0dde2208d90c9d3fbf45b4829