Ledger / Prediction #2783 · narrative · 6H

Will "vibes" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1442 launches in the last hour referenced "vibes" (9 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.37×.

Made2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -0.9980910496510327,
      "diversity": -0.6488372093023255
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22672187279298725
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "vibes",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.011111111111111112,
    "share60": 0.030145530145530147,
    "total15": 404,
    "total60": 1442,
    "momentum": 0.3685823754789272,
    "diversity": 0.20930232558139536,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963344444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993890740740741
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22672187279298725
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.051

Log loss0.257

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006153846153846154,
  "shareRatio": 0.5399449240499863,
  "totalAfter": 8125,
  "shareBefore": 0.011467292155329685,
  "totalBefore": 11511,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 50,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 132
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "vibes" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.15% → 0.62% (-46%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "vibes" (6H). momentum contributed -1.00 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash36a49336dedb5a5161d43500f2c70836dd14577d94207d0ce8862f7ed454721f

Previous hashe642458289ef7430ec73559424bc12a93b863105e9563381711970b2fb33be80