Ledger / Prediction #2788 · narrative · 24H

Will "turn" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

13 of 1442 launches in the last hour referenced "turn" (8 distinct creators, rank #63). Last 15m momentum 0.40×.

Made2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.14332671675411546,
      "momentum": -0.9266320856688877,
      "diversity": -0.1615384615384615
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.31595543037959395
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "turn",
    "rank60": 63,
    "share15": 0.003703703703703704,
    "share60": 0.009355509355509356,
    "total15": 404,
    "total60": 1442,
    "momentum": 0.3958847736625514,
    "diversity": 0.6153846153846154,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 13,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963344444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998472685185186
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.31595543037959395
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 02:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.100

Log loss0.380

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0023463918474385223,
  "shareRatio": 0.9381096351125592,
  "totalAfter": 43471,
  "shareBefore": 0.002503103020273066,
  "totalBefore": 48340,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 102,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 121
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "turn" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.25% → 0.23% (-6%). PARTIAL.

— "turn" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdf4225d7c24c9a1d8f01967643d2d140fa03d1ba907b0444b0aa894d58282de0

Previous hash06d6e813f856335d2cc2c2a7f18381c641af22eabe2c8635b81b38a0ec8ab319