Ledger / Prediction #2793 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

67 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (38 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.

Made2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3892882060435298,
      "momentum": 0.29133671333997857,
      "diversity": -0.21940298507462688
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5402184065079241
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.05835240274599542,
    "share60": 0.0436046511627907,
    "total15": 436,
    "total60": 1547,
    "momentum": 1.3382151029748284,
    "diversity": 0.5671641791044776,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 67,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 158,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932313888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932313888888888
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5402184065079241
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.292

Log loss0.777

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.033172496984318456,
  "shareRatio": 0.7736521331458042,
  "totalAfter": 1658,
  "shareBefore": 0.04294871794871795,
  "totalBefore": 1560,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 55,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.29% → 3.32% (-23%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.39 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf34fb4afd8e6a925b5c2602b1d6be6ac8ddcf8623d2a34924e184876629bc717

Previous hash712cff17367258649ff98ba0a02c5a3a0e9f68fd8944cd161ab172f29057c639