Ledger / Prediction #2798 · narrative · 6H

Will "keeps" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "keeps" (4 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 1.09×.

Made2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": 0.08921252924984421,
      "diversity": -0.78
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.36234285594993026
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "keeps",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.028604118993135013,
    "share60": 0.02616279069767442,
    "total15": 436,
    "total60": 1547,
    "momentum": 1.0933129926264937,
    "diversity": 0.1,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 158,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932313888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988718981481481
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.36234285594993026
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.131

Log loss0.450

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004921756688541141,
  "shareRatio": 0.4248125193294984,
  "totalAfter": 7924,
  "shareBefore": 0.011687833609423891,
  "totalBefore": 10866,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 39,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 127
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 36% that "keeps" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.17% → 0.49% (-58%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "keeps" (6H). diversity contributed -0.78 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha956753e874bce37be9bea29e3e40cacdbc79c046f6a4f3eb446fedc71597eb8

Previous hashd219bc94cd086c4300e24fe8b7b138da2b3046a3eec984633789571fb6da1eda