GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #28 · narrative · 1H

Will "holy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 1256 launches in the last hour referenced "holy" (9 distinct creators, rank #73). Last 15m momentum 2.04×.

Made2026-10-09 07:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 08:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 07:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 0.7125150044917444,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6901205633941996
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "holy",
    "rank60": 73,
    "share15": 0.015410958904109588,
    "share60": 0.007557677008750994,
    "total15": 291,
    "total60": 1256,
    "momentum": 2.0391131939437632,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 124,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993702777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993702777777778
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6901205633941996
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 08:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.476
Log loss1.172
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.055223618311220454,
  "totalAfter": 1197,
  "shareBefore": 0.007165605095541401,
  "totalBefore": 1256,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 69% that "holy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.72% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "holy" (1H). momentum contributed +0.71 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha88d944b13a63f23441b6ff2625669dfcef777e19d8077cc475eac88113d2392
Previous hash1204bdea1f31cbbdbbe4a7c92c3a553b353f4bad8c14f1152066522df5a5786f