Ledger / Prediction #28 · narrative · 1H
Will "holy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
9 of 1256 launches in the last hour referenced "holy" (9 distinct creators, rank #73). Last 15m momentum 2.04×.
Made2026-10-09 07:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 08:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 07:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.08816799973531786,
"momentum": 0.7125150044917444,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.6901205633941996
},
"features": {
"term": "holy",
"rank60": 73,
"share15": 0.015410958904109588,
"share60": 0.007557677008750994,
"total15": 291,
"total60": 1256,
"momentum": 2.0391131939437632,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 9,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 9
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 124,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993702777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993702777777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6901205633941996
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 08:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.476
Log loss1.172
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0,
"shareRatio": 0.055223618311220454,
"totalAfter": 1197,
"shareBefore": 0.007165605095541401,
"totalBefore": 1256,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 0,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 9
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 69% that "holy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.72% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "holy" (1H). momentum contributed +0.71 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a88d944b13a63f23441b6ff2625669dfcef777e19d8077cc475eac88113d2392Previous hash
1204bdea1f31cbbdbbe4a7c92c3a553b353f4bad8c14f1152066522df5a5786f