Ledger / Prediction #2802 · narrative · 24H

Will "main" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "main" (3 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 1.12×.

Made2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": 0.11421383145526169,
      "diversity": -0.8076923076923077
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3792624415418984
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "main",
    "rank60": 16,
    "share15": 0.028604118993135013,
    "share60": 0.025516795865633074,
    "total15": 436,
    "total60": 1547,
    "momentum": 1.1209918025664052,
    "diversity": 0.07692307692307693,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 158,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932313888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999717974537037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3792624415418984
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.144

Log loss0.477

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002271527889314641,
  "shareRatio": 0.5266036079014786,
  "totalAfter": 43583,
  "shareBefore": 0.004324973098253456,
  "totalBefore": 48324,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 99,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 209
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "main" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.43% → 0.23% (-47%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "main" (24H). diversity contributed -0.81 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf437ad1cdb9072acf5569d86b3d0bd7e4faf955e3f17d4fee2309d361385c950

Previous hash798ec87f78154e6887a25a51dab3c5c191eb713d16300cc62e64157ccfd06c61