Will "swan" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "swan" (26 distinct creators, rank #25). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": -2.846088005119229,
      "diversity": 0.14000000000000004
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.17965862497147603
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "swan",
    "rank60": 25,
    "share15": 0.0011441647597254005,
    "share60": 0.01970284237726098,
    "total15": 436,
    "total60": 1547,
    "momentum": 0.058071050755899016,
    "diversity": 0.8666666666666667,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 158,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932313888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999717974537037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.17965862497147603
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00013766835692816007,
  "shareRatio": 0.21513611732088456,
  "totalAfter": 43583,
  "shareBefore": 0.0006828904891979141,
  "totalBefore": 48324,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 33
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity