Ledger / Prediction #2809 · narrative · 1H

Will "nigga" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 1778 launches in the last hour referenced "nigga" (32 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.75×.

Made2026-10-13 03:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 04:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 03:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -0.28894602880290654,
      "diversity": 0.014285714285714235
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4364885378286358
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nigga",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.017894736842105262,
    "share60": 0.02388982574480045,
    "total15": 474,
    "total60": 1778,
    "momentum": 0.7490526315789473,
    "diversity": 0.7619047619047619,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985138888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985138888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4364885378286358
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 04:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.191

Log loss0.574

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0014925373134328358,
  "shareRatio": 0.07812431460279862,
  "totalAfter": 1340,
  "shareBefore": 0.02359550561797753,
  "totalBefore": 1780,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "nigga" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.36% → 0.15% (-94%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "nigga" (1H). momentum contributed -0.29 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5708994d8175c5e8e1cf9d88c97772551a5bc544aff1376a66c29b4989380ca3

Previous hashdf2437bf417cdebe934caf3d3e9f026c2611a487d83d5f643a86e13a02f45109