GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2811 · narrative · 1H

Will "privacy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 74% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1778 launches in the last hour referenced "privacy" (19 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 3.64×.

Made2026-10-13 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 03:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": 1.2919185111871379,
      "diversity": -0.2485714285714286
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.737929280488471
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "privacy",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.07263157894736842,
    "share60": 0.019955030916245082,
    "total15": 474,
    "total60": 1778,
    "momentum": 3.639762787249815,
    "diversity": 0.5428571428571428,
    "launches15": 34,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985138888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985138888888889
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.737929280488471
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 04:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.544
Log loss1.339
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0052238805970149255,
  "shareRatio": 0.2805873270945584,
  "totalAfter": 1340,
  "shareBefore": 0.019662921348314606,
  "totalBefore": 1780,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 35
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 74% that "privacy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.97% → 0.52% (-73%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "privacy" (1H). momentum contributed +1.29 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbe62378d7f56251c40224bec52c66e7c702e59ef0161c1451aa7f4cdbeb6d189
Previous hash9b7ceb0af7321f96cfd7dc3bd9fb22782ca05a3dda4343570e8a9c1a865e3bc1