Ledger / Prediction #2811 · narrative · 1H
Will "privacy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 74% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
35 of 1778 launches in the last hour referenced "privacy" (19 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 3.64×.
Made2026-10-13 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 03:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.291886522358297,
"momentum": 1.2919185111871379,
"diversity": -0.2485714285714286
},
"rawProbability": 0.737929280488471
},
"features": {
"term": "privacy",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.07263157894736842,
"share60": 0.019955030916245082,
"total15": 474,
"total60": 1778,
"momentum": 3.639762787249815,
"diversity": 0.5428571428571428,
"launches15": 34,
"launches60": 35,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 178,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9985138888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985138888888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.737929280488471
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 04:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.544
Log loss1.339
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0052238805970149255,
"shareRatio": 0.2805873270945584,
"totalAfter": 1340,
"shareBefore": 0.019662921348314606,
"totalBefore": 1780,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 7,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 35
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 74% that "privacy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.97% → 0.52% (-73%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "privacy" (1H). momentum contributed +1.29 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
be62378d7f56251c40224bec52c66e7c702e59ef0161c1451aa7f4cdbeb6d189Previous hash
9b7ceb0af7321f96cfd7dc3bd9fb22782ca05a3dda4343570e8a9c1a865e3bc1