Ledger / Prediction #2812 · narrative · 1H
Will "crab" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
8 of 1778 launches in the last hour referenced "crab" (8 distinct creators, rank #95). Last 15m momentum 1.10×.
Made2026-10-13 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 03:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.07050054438686033,
"momentum": 0.09671645200907812,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5417071114923618
},
"features": {
"term": "crab",
"rank60": 95,
"share15": 0.005263157894736842,
"share60": 0.00477796514896009,
"total15": 474,
"total60": 1778,
"momentum": 1.101547987616099,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 8,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 178,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9985138888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985138888888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5417071114923618
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 04:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.293
Log loss0.780
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0014925373134328358,
"shareRatio": 0.3906215730139931,
"totalAfter": 1340,
"shareBefore": 0.0044943820224719105,
"totalBefore": 1780,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 2,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 8
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "crab" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.15% (-67%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "crab" (1H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
c930db51b6a70a46f789139bda42fb12cca6acc4cc3250528845f3dfa349177aPrevious hash
be62378d7f56251c40224bec52c66e7c702e59ef0161c1451aa7f4cdbeb6d189