Will "market" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
32 of 1778 launches in the last hour referenced "market" (20 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 1.79×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27844469855484394,
"momentum": 0.5800918182207032,
"diversity": -0.15
},
"rawProbability": 0.5135637359438758
},
"features": {
"term": "market",
"rank60": 13,
"share15": 0.03263157894736842,
"share60": 0.018268690275435637,
"total15": 474,
"total60": 1778,
"momentum": 1.7862024291497978,
"diversity": 0.625,
"launches15": 15,
"launches60": 32,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 20
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 178,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9985138888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999380787037037
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5135637359438758
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.007670578508600694,
"shareRatio": 1.0765280558133765,
"totalAfter": 43543,
"shareBefore": 0.007125646147826266,
"totalBefore": 48557,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 334,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 346
}Predicted 51% that "market" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 0.77% (+8%). PARTIAL.
— "market" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
78a35dd868989a9df4ca85cdd5b70326ed523f3fa0428242cc5bc38ae22d2ce1937e5c8c9a19683acce18faad285c4567ce91f470a5fc93c99514e82eac08bbe