Will "alon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1778 launches in the last hour referenced "alon" (4 distinct creators, rank #93). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -0.4141091717569125,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3493711997545445
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "alon",
    "rank60": 93,
    "share15": 0.003157894736842105,
    "share60": 0.00477796514896009,
    "total15": 474,
    "total60": 1778,
    "momentum": 0.6609287925696594,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985138888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999380787037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3493711997545445
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005511792940311876,
  "shareRatio": 0.3988485176835982,
  "totalAfter": 43543,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014004160059311738,
  "totalBefore": 48557,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 68
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity