Ledger / Prediction #2822 · token · 6H

Will $Wiener still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 17m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "dog". Creator launched 4 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 03:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 09:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 03:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "Hft8sgPrKf3KjhPuNq7jAk4jbLAukEPUA7hnuHLrpump",
    "name": "Economy Dog",
    "symbol": "Wiener",
    "hotTerms": [
      "dog",
      "uxento"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 17,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 29,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 9453.120941214243,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 4
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 676,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 09:31 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T03:40:10.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3079.662857739864,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 17547.367555504807,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 9453.120941214243,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 18906.241882428487
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $Wiener would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,080, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Wiener (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8317cdd04c2c13ffef565fe9907037367ee8d0018ed208315e29d8771b0a1cc5

Previous hashfff218727e371809c2c6cf040796979f42331e63e096effa844ee6d12542e058