Ledger / Prediction #2825 · narrative · 1H

Will "black" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

195 of 1654 launches in the last hour referenced "black" (132 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.69×.

Made2026-10-13 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.549534246919447,
      "momentum": -0.368328827259359,
      "diversity": -0.08769230769230764
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4485609148955028
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "black",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.08173076923076923,
    "share60": 0.11812688821752265,
    "total15": 311,
    "total60": 1654,
    "momentum": 0.6918896321070235,
    "diversity": 0.676923076923077,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 195,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 132
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949388888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949388888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4485609148955028
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.201

Log loss0.595

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0424597364568082,
  "shareRatio": 0.3615204632644058,
  "totalAfter": 1366,
  "shareBefore": 0.11814345991561181,
  "totalBefore": 1659,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 58,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 196
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "black" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 11.81% → 4.25% (-64%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "black" (1H). momentum contributed -0.37 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9ed4214067d3b3c7f535a3a103b4632e5fac7ffa66974551219eb9580a8342a9

Previous hash8684381e1d7797b19a9e75726f81837fc22691d4f81392c8438b69f464287926