GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2832 · narrative · 6H

Will "digital" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 1654 launches in the last hour referenced "digital" (9 distinct creators, rank #64). Last 15m momentum 1.40×.

Made2026-10-13 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 10:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 03:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 0.3335520332693407,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5511217424087991
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "digital",
    "rank60": 64,
    "share15": 0.008012820512820512,
    "share60": 0.005740181268882176,
    "total15": 311,
    "total60": 1654,
    "momentum": 1.3959176788124155,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949388888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991564814814815
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5511217424087991
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 10:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.202
Log loss0.596
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0032777929527451517,
  "shareRatio": 1.0661386499157905,
  "totalAfter": 7322,
  "shareBefore": 0.0030885722825545483,
  "totalBefore": 10037,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 31
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "digital" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.33% (+6%). PARTIAL.

— "digital" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaea237bee280357e6318028ee091b7e060fefed8e525a1c5299bd099bcef39bf
Previous hash1f716d3e4ac23cd81fc45472e1a94a994aa9b1830025e390ac1ce4c4aabba750