Ledger / Prediction #2833 · narrative · 24H

Will "name" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1654 launches in the last hour referenced "name" (16 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 0.25×.

Made2026-10-13 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": -1.3759693377217421,
      "diversity": -0.2806451612903226
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2706226020852809
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "name",
    "rank60": 16,
    "share15": 0.004807692307692308,
    "share60": 0.019033232628398792,
    "total15": 311,
    "total60": 1654,
    "momentum": 0.2525946275946276,
    "diversity": 0.5161290322580645,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949388888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997891203703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2706226020852809
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 04:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.073

Log loss0.316

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0032539700726414446,
  "shareRatio": 0.7255808392778863,
  "totalAfter": 43639,
  "shareBefore": 0.004490123787357624,
  "totalBefore": 48551,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 142,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 218
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "name" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.33% (-28%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "name" (24H). momentum contributed -1.38 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3d83626d6f38af11885de05f319c460435b2d627aec3fbea0445ac51eb658df1

Previous hashaea237bee280357e6318028ee091b7e060fefed8e525a1c5299bd099bcef39bf