Will "bbc" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

14 of 1654 launches in the last hour referenced "bbc" (13 distinct creators, rank #46). Last 15m momentum 0.55×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1544429125771737,
      "momentum": -0.6001304413166832,
      "diversity": 0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3975459415626847
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bbc",
    "rank60": 46,
    "share15": 0.004807692307692308,
    "share60": 0.008761329305135951,
    "total15": 311,
    "total60": 1654,
    "momentum": 0.548740053050398,
    "diversity": 0.9285714285714286,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 14,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949388888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997891203703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3975459415626847
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00006874584660510094,
  "shareRatio": 0.07710793077474566,
  "totalAfter": 43639,
  "shareBefore": 0.0010298449053572532,
  "totalBefore": 48551,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity