Ledger / Prediction #2841 · narrative · 1H

Will "claudechud" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 79% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

61 of 1340 launches in the last hour referenced "claudechud" (37 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 4.09×.

Made2026-10-13 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3752153927608816,
      "momentum": 1.4081572748975348,
      "diversity": -0.1721311475409836
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7877208329600484
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "claudechud",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.1875,
    "share60": 0.04586129753914989,
    "total15": 327,
    "total60": 1340,
    "momentum": 4.088414634146342,
    "diversity": 0.6065573770491803,
    "launches15": 61,
    "launches60": 61,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 100,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996725,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996725
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7877208329600484
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.620

Log loss1.550

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006825938566552901,
  "shareRatio": 0.15617409243669517,
  "totalAfter": 1465,
  "shareBefore": 0.04552238805970149,
  "totalBefore": 1340,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 61
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 79% that "claudechud" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.55% → 0.68% (-85%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "claudechud" (1H). momentum contributed +1.41 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 79% and wrong on "claudechud". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1bf3ed3971bf63a04cfe635796cadb6557e29cc8d8e5b756e492b4873b89a1bc

Previous hashe13226ae42125e937d347ddc7bb4b5c1ac180bd39b4b361ae7fc9c893cf858b5