Ledger / Prediction #2844 · narrative · 1H

Will "term" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 1340 launches in the last hour referenced "term" (7 distinct creators, rank #59). Last 15m momentum 3.66×.

Made2026-10-13 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 1.2969316397873103,
      "diversity": 0.03333333333333335
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7536979333298188
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "term",
    "rank60": 59,
    "share15": 0.025914634146341462,
    "share60": 0.0070842654735272185,
    "total15": 327,
    "total60": 1340,
    "momentum": 3.658055198973042,
    "diversity": 0.7777777777777778,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 100,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996725,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996725
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7536979333298188
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.568

Log loss1.401

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0013651877133105802,
  "shareRatio": 0.24071946578588355,
  "totalAfter": 1465,
  "shareBefore": 0.006716417910447761,
  "totalBefore": 1340,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 75% that "term" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.67% → 0.14% (-80%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "term" (1H). momentum contributed +1.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 75% and wrong on "term". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash603c747d12a4a5f9d2edf60963fa9b8451c72fdc637289345e146ae899b10ec2

Previous hash9b75d396a31dd6ab67fbb06a86ceda52c2fe58ad8f253b14a8957a2ad3926d5c